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Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
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New Orleans Saints

HC Sean Payton
Sunday 2016-10-30 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread -1.0 O/U 50.0

Win Probability

SEA
40.1%
NO
59.9%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NO offense: +0.161 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • NO defense: +0.167 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • SEA offense: -0.065 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • SEA defense: -0.100 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • QB edge to NO: Drew Brees (NO) +0.207 vs Russell Wilson (SEA) +0.223 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

SEA 24
–
NO 27
Projected margin: NO by 3 Projected total: 51

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

SEA

Michael Bennett DE Out Knee
Kam Chancellor S Out Groin
DeAndre Elliott CB Out Hamstring
Kevin Pierre-Louis LB Out Ankle
Thomas Rawls RB Out Fibula
Luke Willson TE Out Knee
Bradley Sowell T Questionable Knee
Tyler Lockett WR Questionable Thigh

NO

Stephone Anthony LB Out Hamstring
Jake Lampman WR Out Knee
Sterling Moore CB Out Abdomen
Delvin Breaux CB Out Fibula
Terron Armstead T Questionable Knee
Dannell Ellerbe LB Questionable Quadricep
Senio Kelemete C Questionable Neck
Daniel Lasco RB Questionable Hamstring
Andrus Peat T Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SEA 20
–
NO 25

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:04 TD SEA (8:04) 65-S.Kelemete reported in as eligible. 22-M.Ingram right tackle to NO 34 for 2 yards (56-C.Avril). FUMBLES (56-C.Avril), RECOVERED by SEA-29-E.Thomas at NO 34. 29-E.Thomas for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on SEA-29-E.Thomas, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. Penalty was incorrectly called on #23 S.Terrell on the field. SEA 6 – NO 0
  • Q2 11:37 FG NO (11:37) 3-W.Lutz 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead. SEA 7 – NO 3
  • Q2 09:57 TD SEA (9:57) 32-C.Michael right tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 13 – NO 3
  • Q2 05:20 FG NO (5:20) 3-W.Lutz 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead. SEA 14 – NO 6
  • Q2 00:50 TD NO (:50) 9-D.Brees up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 14 – NO 12
  • Q3 09:01 FG SEA (9:01) 4-S.Hauschka 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan. SEA 17 – NO 13
  • Q3 03:17 FG NO (3:17) 3-W.Lutz 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead. SEA 17 – NO 16
  • Q4 12:30 TD NO (12:30) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 10-B.Cooks for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 1, YAC 1 SEA 17 – NO 22
  • Q4 06:41 FG SEA (6:41) 4-S.Hauschka 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan. SEA 20 – NO 22
  • Q4 02:00 FG NO (2:00) 3-W.Lutz 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead. SEA 20 – NO 25

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NO 4th & 9 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (12:20) 6-T.Morstead punts 44 yards to SEA 17, Center-47-J.Drescher. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 28 for 11 yards (89-J.Hill).

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 7 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (8:56) 9-J.Ryan punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-48-N.Frese, Touchback. PENALTY on SEA-23-S.Terrell, Illegal Touch Kick, 0 yards, enforced at NO 20. SEA #23 S.Terrell downed the ball at the NO 4, but was ruled out-of-bounds inside the 20 and not eligible to be the first player to touch the ball. The play is ruled a touchback.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 9 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (6:18) 6-T.Morstead punts 48 yards to SEA 32, Center-47-J.Drescher. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 35 for 3 yards (52-C.Robertson).

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 3 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 53%

    (3:43) 9-J.Ryan punts 45 yards to NO 13, Center-48-N.Frese, fair catch by 87-T.Lewis.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 1 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.20 EP
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 98%

    (11:37) 3-W.Lutz 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 6 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 67%

    (5:20) 3-W.Lutz 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 6 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 84%

    (9:01) 4-S.Hauschka 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 98%

    (3:17) 3-W.Lutz 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 6 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (1:59) 9-J.Ryan punts 43 yards to NO 29, Center-48-N.Frese, fair catch by 87-T.Lewis.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 98%

    (6:41) 4-S.Hauschka 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 2 at the 10 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +2.03 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 96%

    (:02) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short right to 15-J.Kearse.