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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 9 at the 61

New Orleans Saints 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(12:20) 6-T.Morstead punts 44 yards to SEA 17, Center-47-J.Drescher. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 28 for 11 yards (89-J.Hill).

The Three Options

GO -0.87 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +3.18 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 61, worth -3.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 20, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model