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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 6 at the 26

Seattle Seahawks 14 – New Orleans Saints 13

What Actually Happened

(9:01) 4-S.Hauschka 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

The Three Options

GO +0.97 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.56 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26, worth -1.19 EP
KICK +1.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 36, worth -2.01 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model