4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 6 at the 72

Seattle Seahawks 17 – New Orleans Saints 16

What Actually Happened

(1:59) 9-J.Ryan punts 43 yards to NO 29, Center-48-N.Frese, fair catch by 87-T.Lewis.

The Three Options

GO -1.79 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.46 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 72, worth -4.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 30, worth -1.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model