Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 7 at the 58

Seattle Seahawks 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(8:56) 9-J.Ryan punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-48-N.Frese, Touchback. PENALTY on SEA-23-S.Terrell, Illegal Touch Kick, 0 yards, enforced at NO 20. SEA #23 S.Terrell downed the ball at the NO 4, but was ruled out-of-bounds inside the 20 and not eligible to be the first player to touch the ball. The play is ruled a touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.10 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.48 EP
61% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 58, worth -3.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model