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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 13

Cleveland Browns 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(12:44) (Field Goal formation) 3-C.Parkey 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.85 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.96 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 13, worth +0.00 EP
KICK +2.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.37 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 23, worth -0.52 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model