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Dallas Cowboys

HC Jason Garrett
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Cleveland Browns

HC Hue Jackson
Sunday 2016-11-06 · 13:00 FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland US ☀️ Clear Spread -7.0 O/U 49.0

Win Probability

DAL
60.7%
CLE
39.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DAL offense: +0.137 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • CLE defense: +0.120 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • QB edge to DAL: Cody Kessler (CLE) +0.155 vs Dak Prescott (DAL) +0.270 EPA/dropback (CLE starting Cody Kessler in place of Josh McCown)

Predicted Final Score

DAL 26
–
CLE 23
Projected margin: DAL by 3 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

DAL

Barry Church S Out Forearm
Morris Claiborne CB Out Groin
Ryan Davis DE Out Hamstring
Chaz Green T Out Foot
Tony Romo QB Out Back
Dez Bryant WR Questionable Knee
Maliek Collins DT Questionable Knee
Lance Dunbar RB Questionable Knee
Tyron Smith T Questionable Back
Anthony Hitchens LB Questionable Knee
Demarcus Lawrence DE Questionable Back

CLE

Ricardo Louis WR Questionable Hamstring
Tank Carder LB Questionable Concussion
Cameron Erving C Questionable Shoulder
Jamar Taylor CB Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DAL 35
–
CLE 10

Prediction missed by 22 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:44 FG CLE (12:44) (Field Goal formation) 3-C.Parkey 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. DAL 0 – CLE 3
  • Q1 06:53 TD DAL (6:53) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 82-J.Witten for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 6 – CLE 3
  • Q2 10:09 TD DAL (10:09) 21-E.Elliott right tackle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 13 – CLE 3
  • Q2 01:54 TD DAL (1:54) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 11-C.Beasley for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 20 – CLE 3
  • Q2 00:30 TD CLE (:30) (Shotgun) 6-C.Kessler pass short right to 11-T.Pryor Sr. for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DAL-90-D.Lawrence, Defensive Offside, declined. DAL 21 – CLE 9
  • Q3 11:36 TD DAL (11:36) 21-E.Elliott left tackle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 27 – CLE 10
  • Q3 01:46 TD DAL (1:46) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 89-G.Escobar for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 34 – CLE 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 8 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 95%

    (12:44) (Field Goal formation) 3-C.Parkey 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 6 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (4:44) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 59 yards to DAL 1, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-39-E.Reynolds. #80 Louis Tapped ball to the 1 yard line

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 5 at the 94
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (3:11) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 50 yards to CLE 44, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 29-D.Johnson Jr. to CLE 46 for 2 yards (57-D.Wilson). CLE-29-D.Johnson Jr. was injured during the play. His return is Probable.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 1 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 39%

    (1:17) 6-C.Kessler up the middle to DAL 42 for 3 yards (93-B.Mayowa).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 2 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 86%

    (14:54) (Field Goal formation) 3-C.Parkey 41 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 2 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (6:38) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 38 yards to DAL 33, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 13-L.Whitehead to DAL 33 for no gain (53-J.Schobert).

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 10 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (7:19) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 34 yards to DAL 36, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 13-L.Whitehead.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (:25) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 37 yards to DAL 33, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 13-L.Whitehead ran ob at DAL 36 for 3 yards.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 18 at the 37
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 60%

    (9:50) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 25 yards to CLE 12, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 22-T.Williams Sr..

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 4 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (7:59) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 52 yards to DAL 30, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 13-L.Whitehead to DAL 45 for 15 yards (47-C.Hughlett).

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 1 at the 34 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 67%

    (3:53) 46-A.Morris right guard to CLE 33 for 1 yard (56-D.Davis). DAL #63 Cleary reports as an eligible receiver. Cleveland challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed. (Timeout #1.)

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 1 at the 24 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 85%

    (1:13) 3-M.Sanchez pass short right to 87-G.Swaim to CLE 16 for 8 yards (24-I.Campbell; 39-E.Reynolds). CLE-39-E.Reynolds was injured during the play. His return is Probable.