4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 70

Cleveland Browns 10 – Dallas Cowboys 28

What Actually Happened

(7:19) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 34 yards to DAL 36, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 13-L.Whitehead.

The Three Options

GO -1.87 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.13 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 70, worth -3.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 28, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model