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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 70

Cleveland Browns 10 – Dallas Cowboys 35

What Actually Happened

(:25) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 37 yards to DAL 33, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 13-L.Whitehead ran ob at DAL 36 for 3 yards.

The Three Options

GO -1.35 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.69 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 70, worth -3.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 28, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model