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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 18 at the 37

Dallas Cowboys 35 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(9:50) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 25 yards to CLE 12, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 22-T.Williams Sr..

The Three Options

GO -0.18 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.67 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 37, worth -1.86 EP
KICK +0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 46, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.38 EP