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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 4 at the 82

Cleveland Browns 10 – Dallas Cowboys 35

What Actually Happened

(7:59) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 52 yards to DAL 30, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 13-L.Whitehead to DAL 45 for 15 yards (47-C.Hughlett).

The Three Options

GO -1.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +1.00 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 82, worth -4.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.85 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 40, worth -1.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model