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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 45

Cleveland Browns 3 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(1:17) 6-C.Kessler up the middle to DAL 42 for 3 yards (93-B.Mayowa).

The Three Options

GO +1.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.25 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 45, worth -1.74 EP
KICK -0.37 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.66 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.29 EP
PUNT +0.50 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 12, worth +0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model