Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 70

Denver Broncos 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 13

(12:55) 9-R.Dixon punts 43 yards to LV 27, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 30-J.Richard ran ob at LV 26 for -1 yards (16-B.Fowler).

The Three Options

GO -1.51 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.45 EP
54% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 70, worth -4.04 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model