DEN @ OAK — 4th & Data

← Home

Away

Denver Broncos

HC Gary Kubiak

Home

Oakland Raiders

HC Jack Del Rio

Sunday 2016-11-06 · 20:30 Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum, Oakland US ☀️ Clear Spread 1.0 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

DEN

46.9%

OAK

53.1%

☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

LV defense: +0.088 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
LV offense: +0.061 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
DEN defense: -0.146 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
DEN offense: -0.025 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DEN 22

–

OAK 23

Projected margin: OAK by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

DEN

Aqib Talib CB Out Back

Brandon Marshall LB Questionable Hamstring

Matt Paradis C Questionable Hip

Kayvon Webster CB Questionable Hamstring

OAK

Stacy McGee DT Out Ankle

Vadal Alexander G Questionable Ankle

Amari Cooper WR Questionable Back

Rodney Hudson C Questionable Knee

Taiwan Jones RB Questionable Knee

Jamize Olawale RB Questionable Ankle

Kelechi Osemele G Questionable Knee

Sean Smith CB Questionable Shoulder

Menelik Watson T Questionable Calf

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DEN 20

–

OAK 30

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 10:24 FG LV (10:24) 11-S.Janikowski 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King. DEN 0 – OAK 3
Q1 04:54 FG LV (4:54) 11-S.Janikowski 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King. DEN 0 – OAK 6
Q2 14:11 TD LV (14:11) 28-L.Murray up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 0 – OAK 12
Q2 08:31 TD DEN (8:31) 13-T.Siemian pass deep right to 11-J.Norwood for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 6 – OAK 13
Q2 01:29 TD LV (1:29) 28-L.Murray left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 7 – OAK 19
Q2 00:02 FG DEN (:02) 8-B.McManus 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon. DEN 10 – OAK 20
Q4 15:00 FG DEN (15:00) 8-B.McManus 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon. DEN 13 – OAK 20
Q4 08:23 FG LV (8:23) 11-S.Janikowski 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King. DEN 13 – OAK 23
Q4 06:13 TD LV (6:13) 28-L.Murray up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 13 – OAK 29
Q4 05:34 TD DEN (5:34) (Shotgun) 13-T.Siemian pass short middle to 35-K.Bibbs for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 19 – OAK 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 DEN 4th & 10 at the 86

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 37%

(14:45) 9-R.Dixon punts 48 yards to LV 38, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 30-J.Richard to LV 48 for 10 yards (57-D.Watson).
Q1 LV 4th & 1 at the 5

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.69 EP

p(convert) 63% p(FG) 98%

(10:24) 11-S.Janikowski 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.
Q1 DEN 4th & 13 at the 79

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32%

(9:30) 9-R.Dixon punts 48 yards to LV 31, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 30-J.Richard to LV 42 for 11 yards (32-A.Janovich).
Q1 LV 4th & 9 at the 11

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 29% p(FG) 96%

(4:54) 11-S.Janikowski 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.
Q1 DEN 4th & 3 at the 78

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP

p(convert) 56%

(3:43) 9-R.Dixon punts 35 yards to LV 43, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 30-J.Richard.
Q2 DEN 4th & 5 at the 70

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 46%

(12:55) 9-R.Dixon punts 43 yards to LV 27, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 30-J.Richard ran ob at LV 26 for -1 yards (16-B.Fowler).
Q2 LV 4th & 13 at the 77

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31%

(12:01) 7-M.King punts 51 yards to DEN 26, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 11-J.Norwood. PENALTY on DEN-31-J.Simmons, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 26.
Q2 LV 4th & 16 at the 30

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 23% p(FG) 74%

(4:37) 11-S.Janikowski 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.
Q2 DEN 4th & 1 at the 53

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.59 EP

p(convert) 70% p(FG) 20%

(3:13) 9-R.Dixon punts 34 yards to LV 19, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 38-T.Carrie to LV 25 for 6 yards (52-C.Nelson).
Q3 LV 4th & 8 at the 39

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33% p(FG) 53%

(8:57) 7-M.King punts 37 yards to DEN 2, Center-59-J.Condo, downed by LV-18-A.Holmes.
Q3 DEN 4th & 1 at the 89

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.25 EP

p(convert) 74%

(7:55) 9-R.Dixon punts 59 yards to LV 30, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 30-J.Richard to LV 36 for 6 yards (50-Z.Anderson; 48-S.Barrett).
Q3 LV 4th & 3 at the 42

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP

p(convert) 50% p(FG) 45%

(4:43) 7-M.King punts 40 yards to DEN 2, Center-59-J.Condo, downed by LV-22-T.Jones. PENALTY on DEN-39-T.Nixon, Offensive Holding, 1 yard, enforced at DEN 2.
Q4 DEN 4th & 12 at the 26

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 27% p(FG) 82%

(15:00) 8-B.McManus 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Q4 LV 4th & 3 at the 17

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP

p(convert) 46% p(FG) 92%

(8:23) 11-S.Janikowski 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.
Q4 LV 4th & 10 at the 57 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32%

(2:30) 7-M.King punts 41 yards to DEN 16, Center-59-J.Condo. 11-J.Norwood to DEN 28 for 12 yards (20-N.Allen).
Q4 DEN 4th & 10 at the 72 late-game

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35%

(2:06) (Shotgun) 13-T.Siemian pass deep middle intended for 11-J.Norwood INTERCEPTED by 27-R.Nelson at LV 49. 27-R.Nelson to DEN 44 for 7 yards (71-D.Stephenson).