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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 16 at the 30

Las Vegas Raiders 13 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(4:37) 11-S.Janikowski 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

The Three Options

GO +0.17 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.08 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30, worth -1.29 EP
KICK +1.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 40, worth -1.89 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model