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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 53

Denver Broncos 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 13

What Actually Happened

(3:13) 9-R.Dixon punts 34 yards to LV 19, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 38-T.Carrie to LV 25 for 6 yards (52-C.Nelson).

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.31 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 53, worth -2.92 EP
KICK -1.80 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 15, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.59 EP