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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 89

Denver Broncos 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 20

What Actually Happened

(7:55) 9-R.Dixon punts 59 yards to LV 30, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 30-J.Richard to LV 36 for 6 yards (50-Z.Anderson; 48-S.Barrett).

The Three Options

GO -1.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth +0.15 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 89, worth -5.27 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.52 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 46, worth -2.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.25 EP