4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 5

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(10:24) 11-S.Janikowski 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

The Three Options

GO +4.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +6.11 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 5, worth +0.55 EP
KICK +2.38 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -0.28 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.69 EP