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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 17

Las Vegas Raiders 20 – Denver Broncos 13

What Actually Happened

(8:23) 11-S.Janikowski 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

The Three Options

GO +1.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.02 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 17, worth -0.91 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
What Happened
  • 92% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 27, worth -1.33 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP