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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 72

Denver Broncos 20 – Las Vegas Raiders 30

What Actually Happened

(2:06) (Shotgun) 13-T.Siemian pass deep middle intended for 11-J.Norwood INTERCEPTED by 27-R.Nelson at LV 49. 27-R.Nelson to DEN 44 for 7 yards (71-D.Stephenson).

The Three Options

GO -0.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.15 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 72, worth -1.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -0.72 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 30, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model