4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 13 at the 79

Denver Broncos 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(9:30) 9-R.Dixon punts 48 yards to LV 31, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 30-J.Richard to LV 42 for 11 yards (32-A.Janovich).

The Three Options

GO -2.87 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.20 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 79, worth -4.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -2.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 36, worth -2.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model