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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 78

Denver Broncos 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 6

What Actually Happened

(3:43) 9-R.Dixon punts 35 yards to LV 43, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 30-J.Richard.

The Three Options

GO -1.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.70 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 78, worth -4.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -2.20 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 35, worth -2.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP