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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 30

San Francisco 49ers 10 – New Orleans Saints 28

What Actually Happened

(3:58) 4-P.Dawson 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.13 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.28 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30, worth -1.28 EP
KICK +1.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 40, worth -1.77 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model