Win Probability
Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- QB edge to NO: Colin Kaepernick (SF) -0.129 vs Drew Brees (NO) +0.257 EPA/dropback
- NO offense: +0.113 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
- SF defense: +0.029 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
- SF offense: -0.122 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
- NO defense: +0.134 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
- SF on 7 more days rest than NO
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 9
NO
Pulled fresh for 2016 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 17 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 09:30 FG SF (9:30) 4-P.Dawson 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. NO 0 – SF 3
- Q1 05:15 TD NO (5:15) (Shotgun) 34-T.Hightower right guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 6 – SF 3
- Q1 02:17 TD NO (2:17) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 13-M.Thomas for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NO 13 – SF 3
- Q2 07:46 TD NO (7:46) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 22-M.Ingram for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SF 8 8-yds YAC The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. NO 20 – SF 3
- Q2 06:07 TD SF (6:07) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick pass short right to 32-D.Harris for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SF 49. 51-yds YAC NO 21 – SF 9
- Q2 05:56 TD NO (5:56) 22-M.Ingram right tackle for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 27 – SF 10
- Q2 03:58 FG SF (3:58) 4-P.Dawson 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. NO 28 – SF 13
- Q2 01:16 TD SF (1:16) (Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick pass short right to 89-V.McDonald for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SF 39. 61-yds YAC NO 28 – SF 19
- Q2 00:04 FG NO (:04) 3-W.Lutz 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead. NO 31 – SF 20
- Q3 09:12 FG SF (9:12) 4-P.Dawson 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. NO 31 – SF 23
- Q4 13:21 TD NO (13:21) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep right to 13-M.Thomas for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SF 0. 0-yrd YAC NO 37 – SF 23
- Q4 08:56 FG NO (8:56) 3-W.Lutz 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead. NO 41 – SF 23
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 NO 4th & 12 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(12:24) 6-T.Morstead punts 56 yards to SF 13, Center-47-J.Drescher. 17-J.Kerley to SF 24 for 11 yards (56-M.Mauti; 16-B.Coleman).
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 SF 4th & 18 at the 31Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 22% p(FG) 75%
(9:30) 4-P.Dawson 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 SF 4th & 1 at the 24Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 66% p(FG) 86%
(13:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 32-D.Harris up the middle to NO 24 for no gain (40-D.Breaux). Officials to measure for the 1st down. Short.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 SF 4th & 4 at the 30Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43% p(FG) 77%
(3:58) 4-P.Dawson 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 NO 4th & 4 at the 54Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EPp(convert) 50%
(1:54) 6-T.Morstead punts 41 yards to SF 13, Center-47-J.Drescher, fair catch by 17-J.Kerley. PENALTY on NO-20-B.Dixon, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at SF 13.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 NO 4th & 3 at the 92Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EPp(convert) 59%
(10:23) 6-T.Morstead punts 59 yards to SF 33, Center-47-J.Drescher. 17-J.Kerley to SF 43 for 10 yards (19-J.Lampman).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 SF 4th & 10 at the 28Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 81%
(9:12) 4-P.Dawson 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 NO 4th & 11 at the 37Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 62%
(2:59) 3-W.Lutz 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 SF 4th & 12 at the 57Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(1:45) 5-B.Pinion punts 34 yards to NO 23, Center-86-K.Nelson, downed by SF-56-S.Skov.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 SF 4th & 10 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(13:01) 5-B.Pinion punts 51 yards to NO 24, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 31-J.Byrd.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 NO 4th & 5 at the 23Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42% p(FG) 87%
(8:56) 3-W.Lutz 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 SF 4th & 5 at the 10Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 96%
(6:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick FUMBLES (Aborted) at NO 16, RECOVERED by NO-32-K.Vaccaro at NO 8. 32-K.Vaccaro to NO 8 for no gain (68-Z.Beadles).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 NO 4th & 2 at the 70 late-gameChose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EPp(convert) 63%
(3:05) 6-T.Morstead punts 54 yards to SF 16, Center-47-J.Drescher. 17-J.Kerley to SF 18 for 2 yards (54-N.Stupar). PENALTY on SF-29-J.Tartt, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SF 18.
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