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New Orleans Saints

HC Sean Payton
@
SF Home

San Francisco 49ers

HC Chip Kelly
Sunday 2016-11-06 · 16:05 Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US ☀️ Clear Spread -5.0 O/U 53.0

Win Probability

NO
62.7%
SF
37.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to NO: Colin Kaepernick (SF) -0.129 vs Drew Brees (NO) +0.257 EPA/dropback
  • NO offense: +0.113 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • SF offense: -0.122 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • SF on 7 more days rest than NO
  • NO defense: +0.134 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • SF defense: +0.029 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (19th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NO 25
–
SF 22
Projected margin: NO by 3 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

NO

Dannell Ellerbe LB Out Quadricep
Daniel Lasco RB Out Hamstring
James Laurinaitis LB Out Quadricep
Stephone Anthony LB Questionable Hamstring
Terron Armstead T Questionable Knee
Delvin Breaux CB Questionable Fibula
Jake Lampman WR Questionable Knee
Sterling Moore CB Questionable Abdomen

SF

Aaron Lynch LB Out Ankle
Rashard Robinson CB Out Knee
Carlos Hyde RB Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NO 41
–
SF 23

Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 17 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:30 FG SF (9:30) 4-P.Dawson 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. NO 0 – SF 3
  • Q1 05:15 TD NO (5:15) (Shotgun) 34-T.Hightower right guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 6 – SF 3
  • Q1 02:17 TD NO (2:17) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 13-M.Thomas for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NO 13 – SF 3
  • Q2 07:46 TD NO (7:46) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 22-M.Ingram for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SF 8 8-yds YAC The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. NO 20 – SF 3
  • Q2 06:07 TD SF (6:07) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick pass short right to 32-D.Harris for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SF 49. 51-yds YAC NO 21 – SF 9
  • Q2 05:56 TD NO (5:56) 22-M.Ingram right tackle for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 27 – SF 10
  • Q2 03:58 FG SF (3:58) 4-P.Dawson 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. NO 28 – SF 13
  • Q2 01:16 TD SF (1:16) (Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick pass short right to 89-V.McDonald for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SF 39. 61-yds YAC NO 28 – SF 19
  • Q2 00:04 FG NO (:04) 3-W.Lutz 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead. NO 31 – SF 20
  • Q3 09:12 FG SF (9:12) 4-P.Dawson 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. NO 31 – SF 23
  • Q4 13:21 TD NO (13:21) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep right to 13-M.Thomas for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SF 0. 0-yrd YAC NO 37 – SF 23
  • Q4 08:56 FG NO (8:56) 3-W.Lutz 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead. NO 41 – SF 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NO 4th & 12 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (12:24) 6-T.Morstead punts 56 yards to SF 13, Center-47-J.Drescher. 17-J.Kerley to SF 24 for 11 yards (56-M.Mauti; 16-B.Coleman).

  • Q1 SF 4th & 18 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 75%

    (9:30) 4-P.Dawson 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 1 at the 24
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 86%

    (13:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 32-D.Harris up the middle to NO 24 for no gain (40-D.Breaux). Officials to measure for the 1st down. Short.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 4 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 77%

    (3:58) 4-P.Dawson 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 4 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 50%

    (1:54) 6-T.Morstead punts 41 yards to SF 13, Center-47-J.Drescher, fair catch by 17-J.Kerley. PENALTY on NO-20-B.Dixon, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at SF 13.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 3 at the 92
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (10:23) 6-T.Morstead punts 59 yards to SF 33, Center-47-J.Drescher. 17-J.Kerley to SF 43 for 10 yards (19-J.Lampman).

  • Q3 SF 4th & 10 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 81%

    (9:12) 4-P.Dawson 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 11 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 62%

    (2:59) 3-W.Lutz 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 12 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (1:45) 5-B.Pinion punts 34 yards to NO 23, Center-86-K.Nelson, downed by SF-56-S.Skov.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (13:01) 5-B.Pinion punts 51 yards to NO 24, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 31-J.Byrd.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 5 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 87%

    (8:56) 3-W.Lutz 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 5 at the 10
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 96%

    (6:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick FUMBLES (Aborted) at NO 16, RECOVERED by NO-32-K.Vaccaro at NO 8. 32-K.Vaccaro to NO 8 for no gain (68-Z.Beadles).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 2 at the 70 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (3:05) 6-T.Morstead punts 54 yards to SF 16, Center-47-J.Drescher. 17-J.Kerley to SF 18 for 2 yards (54-N.Stupar). PENALTY on SF-29-J.Tartt, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SF 18.