4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 4 at the 54

New Orleans Saints 28 – San Francisco 49ers 13

What Actually Happened

(1:54) 6-T.Morstead punts 41 yards to SF 13, Center-47-J.Drescher, fair catch by 17-J.Kerley. PENALTY on NO-20-B.Dixon, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at SF 13.

The Three Options

GO -0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.43 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 54, worth -2.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP