4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 92

New Orleans Saints 31 – San Francisco 49ers 20

What Actually Happened

(10:23) 6-T.Morstead punts 59 yards to SF 33, Center-47-J.Drescher. 17-J.Kerley to SF 43 for 10 yards (19-J.Lampman).

The Three Options

GO -2.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 89, worth -0.07 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 92, worth -5.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

PUNT -2.86 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 50, worth -2.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP