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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 12 at the 57

San Francisco 49ers 23 – New Orleans Saints 31

What Actually Happened

(1:45) 5-B.Pinion punts 34 yards to NO 23, Center-86-K.Nelson, downed by SF-56-S.Skov.

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.82 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 57, worth -3.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 17, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model