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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 23

New Orleans Saints 38 – San Francisco 49ers 23

What Actually Happened

(8:56) 3-W.Lutz 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +1.29 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.59 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 23, worth -1.07 EP
KICK +1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.56 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model