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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 10

San Francisco 49ers 23 – New Orleans Saints 41

What Actually Happened

(6:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick FUMBLES (Aborted) at NO 16, RECOVERED by NO-32-K.Vaccaro at NO 8. 32-K.Vaccaro to NO 8 for no gain (68-Z.Beadles).

The Three Options

GO +1.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.54 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 10, worth -0.17 EP
KICK +1.89 EP
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -0.77 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model