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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 70

New Orleans Saints 41 – San Francisco 49ers 23

What Actually Happened

(3:05) 6-T.Morstead punts 54 yards to SF 16, Center-47-J.Drescher. 17-J.Kerley to SF 18 for 2 yards (54-N.Stupar). PENALTY on SF-29-J.Tartt, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SF 18.

The Three Options

GO -0.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.38 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 70, worth -3.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.99 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 28, worth -0.99 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP