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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 3 at the 35

Atlanta Falcons 6 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(:30) 3-M.Bryant 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +1.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +2.72 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 35, worth -0.88 EP
KICK +0.99 EP
What Happened
  • 60% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.55 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 45, worth -1.40 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model