ATL @ PHI — 4th & Data

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Atlanta Falcons

HC Dan Quinn

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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Doug Pederson

Sunday 2016-11-13 · 13:00 Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US ☀️ Clear Spread 2.0 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

ATL

62.8%

PHI

37.2%

☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

ATL offense: +0.250 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
PHI defense: -0.144 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
QB edge to ATL: Carson Wentz (PHI) +0.095 vs Matt Ryan (ATL) +0.335 EPA/dropback
ATL defense: +0.102 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
PHI offense: -0.036 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
ATL on 3 more days rest than PHI

Predicted Final Score

ATL 23

–

PHI 21

Projected margin: ATL by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

ATL

Tevin Coleman RB Out Hamstring

Jacob Tamme TE Out Shoulder

Desmond Trufant CB Out Shoulder

PHI

Allen Barbre G Out Hamstring

Terrence Brooks S Out Hamstring

Kamu Grugier-Hill LB Doubtful Hamstring

Trey Burton TE Questionable Hamstring

Taylor Hart DT Questionable Ankle

Bennie Logan DT Questionable Groin

Brent Celek TE Questionable Rib

Leodis McKelvin CB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ATL 15

–

PHI 24

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 04:19 TD PHI (4:19) (Shotgun) 24-R.Mathews left tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 0 – PHI 6
Q2 09:40 FG ATL (9:40) 3-M.Bryant 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. ATL 3 – PHI 7
Q2 03:03 FG ATL (3:03) 3-M.Bryant 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. ATL 6 – PHI 7
Q3 08:18 FG PHI (8:18) 6-C.Sturgis 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones. ATL 6 – PHI 10
Q3 04:50 FG ATL (4:50) 3-M.Bryant 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. ATL 9 – PHI 10
Q4 13:25 TD ATL (13:25) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right to 18-T.Gabriel for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 15 – PHI 13
Q4 13:52 FG PHI (13:52) 6-C.Sturgis 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones. ATL 9 – PHI 13
Q4 06:53 TD PHI (6:53) (Shotgun) 24-R.Mathews right end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 15 – PHI 19
Q4 02:00 FG PHI (2:00) 6-C.Sturgis 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones. ATL 15 – PHI 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 ATL 4th & 7 at the 69

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 43%

(11:42) 5-M.Bosher punts 50 yards to PHI 19, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by ATL-27-R.Therezie.
Q1 ATL 4th & 3 at the 67

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP

p(convert) 57%

(2:44) 5-M.Bosher punts 45 yards to PHI 22, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.
Q2 PHI 4th & 9 at the 26

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31% p(FG) 80%

(12:43) 6-C.Sturgis 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.
Q2 ATL 4th & 4 at the 20

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP

p(convert) 46% p(FG) 89%

(9:40) 3-M.Bryant 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
Q2 PHI 4th & 4 at the 59

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP

p(convert) 48%

(7:47) 8-D.Jones punts 43 yards to ATL 16, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 14-E.Weems to ATL 25 for 9 yards (28-W.Smallwood).
Q2 ATL 4th & 18 at the 25

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 24% p(FG) 82%

(3:03) 3-M.Bryant 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
Q2 ATL 4th & 3 at the 35

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 52% p(FG) 60%

(:30) 3-M.Bryant 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
Q2 PHI 4th & 1 at the 48

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 69% p(FG) 27%

(:08) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete short right to 17-N.Agholor.
Q3 PHI 4th & 9 at the 11

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30% p(FG) 96%

(8:18) 6-C.Sturgis 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.
Q3 ATL 4th & 2 at the 28

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EP

p(convert) 58% p(FG) 77%

(4:50) 3-M.Bryant 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
Q4 PHI 4th & 12 at the 36

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28% p(FG) 58%

(10:50) 6-C.Sturgis 55 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.
Q4 ATL 4th & 10 at the 55

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35%

(10:32) 3-M.Bryant punts 31 yards to PHI 24, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.
Q4 PHI 4th & 7 at the 7

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33% p(FG) 97%

(13:52) 6-C.Sturgis 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.
Q4 ATL 4th & 12 at the 64

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33%

(5:36) 3-M.Bryant punts 36 yards to PHI 28, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.
Q4 PHI 4th & 1 at the 63 late-game

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP

p(convert) 71%

(4:04) 8-D.Jones punts 43 yards to ATL 20, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, out of bounds. PENALTY on PHI-52-N.Goode, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at ATL 20.
Q4 ATL 4th & 5 at the 60 late-game

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 47%

(2:24) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete deep left to 11-J.Jones.
Q4 PHI 4th & 2 at the 31 late-game

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 56% p(FG) 70%

(2:00) 6-C.Sturgis 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.