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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 48

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Atlanta Falcons 6

What Actually Happened

(:08) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete short right to 17-N.Agholor.

The Three Options

GO +0.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +0.94 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 48, worth -0.52 EP
KICK +0.39 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -0.56 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 14, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model