4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 9 at the 11

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Atlanta Falcons 6

What Actually Happened

(8:18) 6-C.Sturgis 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.92 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.33 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP
KICK +2.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 22, worth -0.69 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model