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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 2 at the 28

Atlanta Falcons 6 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

What Actually Happened

(4:50) 3-M.Bryant 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +2.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.30 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 28, worth -1.22 EP
KICK +0.91 EP
What Happened
  • 77% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 38, worth -2.12 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EP