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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 10 at the 55

Atlanta Falcons 15 – Philadelphia Eagles 13

What Actually Happened

(10:32) 3-M.Bryant punts 31 yards to PHI 24, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

The Three Options

GO -0.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.89 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 55, worth -2.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.92 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 16, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model