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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 7 at the 7

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – Atlanta Falcons 9

What Actually Happened

(13:52) 6-C.Sturgis 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +2.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.12 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 7, worth +0.29 EP
KICK +2.10 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -0.58 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model