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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 12 at the 64

Atlanta Falcons 15 – Philadelphia Eagles 21

What Actually Happened

(5:36) 3-M.Bryant punts 36 yards to PHI 28, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

The Three Options

GO -1.32 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.43 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 64, worth -3.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 22, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model