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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 5 at the 60

Atlanta Falcons 15 – Philadelphia Eagles 21

What Actually Happened

(2:24) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete deep left to 11-J.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.69 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 60, worth -2.42 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.62 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 19, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model