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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 9 at the 26

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(12:43) 6-C.Sturgis 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.20 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.98 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26, worth -0.52 EP
KICK +1.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.50 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 36, worth -1.43 EP
PUNT +0.42 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model