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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 20

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(9:40) 3-M.Bryant 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +1.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.61 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 20, worth -1.25 EP
KICK +1.08 EP
What Happened
  • 89% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.45 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30, worth -1.85 EP
PUNT -0.67 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP