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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 10 at the 90

Chicago Bears 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14

What Actually Happened

(1:54) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 43 yards to TB 47, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 11-A.Humphries.

The Three Options

GO -2.96 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.79 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 90, worth -5.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 47, worth -2.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model