4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
CHI Away

Chicago Bears

HC John Fox
@
TB Home

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Dirk Koetter
Sunday 2016-11-13 · 13:00 Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US ☀️ Clear Spread -2.5 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

CHI
41.1%
TB
58.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CHI offense: -0.062 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • TB defense: +0.085 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • Jay Cutler (CHI): -0.022 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • CHI on 3 more days rest than TB

Predicted Final Score

CHI 21
–
TB 24
Projected margin: TB by 3 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

CHI

Deiondre' Hall CB Out Ankle
Mitch Unrein DE Questionable Back
Bryce Callahan CB Questionable Hamstring
Eddie Goldman DT Questionable Ankle
Pernell McPhee LB Questionable Knee
Tracy Porter CB Questionable Knee
Eddie Royal WR Questionable Toe

TB

Kevin Pamphile T Out Concussion
Jacquizz Rodgers RB Out Foot
Russell Shepard WR Out Hip
Joe Hawley C Doubtful Knee
Doug Martin RB Questionable Hamstring
Clinton McDonald DT Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CHI 10
–
TB 36

Prediction missed by 23 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:42 TD TB (5:42) 6-J.Cutler pass short left intended for 82-L.Paulsen INTERCEPTED by 23-C.Conte at CHI 20. 23-C.Conte for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on TB, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. CHI 0 – TB 6
  • Q1 02:47 FG CHI (2:47) (Field Goal formation) 4-C.Barth 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 3 – TB 7
  • Q2 03:38 TD TB (3:38) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short middle to 84-C.Brate for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 3 – TB 13
  • Q2 00:35 FG TB (:35) (Field Goal formation) 19-R.Aguayo 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger. CHI 3 – TB 17
  • Q2 00:05 TD CHI (:05) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass deep left to 81-C.Meredith for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 9 – TB 17
  • Q3 13:15 TD TB (13:15) 3-J.Winston pass deep right to 16-F.Martino for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 10 – TB 23
  • Q3 05:23 FG TB (5:23) (Field Goal formation) 19-R.Aguayo 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger. CHI 10 – TB 27
  • Q3 00:58 SAF TB (:58) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler sacked at CHI 0 for -3 yards (91-R.Ayers). FUMBLES (91-R.Ayers) [91-R.Ayers], ball out of bounds in End Zone, SAFETY. CHI 10 – TB 29
  • Q4 06:00 TD TB (6:00) 78-G.Cherilus and 93-G.McCoy reported in as eligible. 22-D.Martin left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 10 – TB 35

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 7 at the 38
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 57%

    (11:32) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 28 yards to TB 10, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-11-J.Bellamy.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 1 at the 81
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.13 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (9:26) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 41 yards to CHI 40, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 19-E.Royal.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 5 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (5:48) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 33 yards to CHI 21, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 19-E.Royal.

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 8 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 62%

    (2:47) (Field Goal formation) 4-C.Barth 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 10 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (1:54) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 43 yards to TB 47, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 11-A.Humphries.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 5 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 95%

    (:35) (Field Goal formation) 19-R.Aguayo 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 20 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (11:28) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 51 yards to TB 34, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-A.Humphries to TB 39 for 5 yards (31-C.Prosinski).

  • Q3 TB 4th & 9 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 97%

    (5:23) (Field Goal formation) 19-R.Aguayo 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 18 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (4:04) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 43 yards to TB 40, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 11-A.Humphries.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 9 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (1:59) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 54 yards to CHI 5, Center-48-A.DePaola. 19-E.Royal to CHI 2 for -3 yards (26-J.Robinson).

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 3 at the 68 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (4:39) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 53 yards to TB 15, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 11-A.Humphries.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 2 at the 77 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (2:46) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 44 yards to CHI 33, Center-48-A.DePaola. 19-E.Royal to CHI 32 for -1 yards (52-C.Lynch). PENALTY on CHI-49-S.Acho, Offensive Holding, 15 yards, enforced at CHI 33.