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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 9 at the 9

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24 – Chicago Bears 10

What Actually Happened

(5:23) (Field Goal formation) 19-R.Aguayo 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.95 EP
  • 29% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.17 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 9, worth +0.24 EP
KICK +2.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth -0.53 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model