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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 8 at the 36

Chicago Bears 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(2:47) (Field Goal formation) 4-C.Barth 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO -0.11 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.07 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 36, worth -2.21 EP
KICK -0.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.88 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model