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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 9 at the 63

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(13:40) 10-K.Huber punts 51 yards to NYG 12, Center-46-C.Harris. 17-D.Harris ran ob at NYG 20 for 8 yards (89-R.Hewitt).

The Three Options

GO -1.58 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.15 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 63, worth -3.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 21, worth -1.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model