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Cincinnati Bengals

HC Marvin Lewis
@
NYG Home

New York Giants

HC Ben McAdoo
Monday 2016-11-14 · 20:30 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread -1.0 O/U 49.5

Win Probability

CIN
58.3%
NYG
41.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CIN offense: +0.118 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • NYG offense: -0.078 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • CIN on 7 more days rest than NYG
  • Andy Dalton (CIN): +0.166 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • CIN defense: +0.107 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CIN 23
–
NYG 22
Projected margin: CIN by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

CIN

Rey Maualuga LB Out Fibula
Michael Johnson DE Questionable Calf
James Wright WR Questionable Hamstring

NYG

Justin Pugh G Out Knee
Victor Cruz WR Questionable Ankle
Kerry Wynn DE Questionable Concussion
Andrew Adams S Questionable Shoulder
Jonathan Casillas LB Questionable Calf

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CIN 20
–
NYG 21

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:12 TD NYG (11:12) (No Huddle) 10-E.Manning pass short left to 89-J.Adams for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 0 – NYG 6
  • Q1 09:04 TD CIN (9:04) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 18-A.Green for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 6 – NYG 7
  • Q2 04:30 FG CIN (4:30) 2-M.Nugent 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 10 – NYG 7
  • Q2 01:24 TD NYG (1:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short left to 13-O.Beckham for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 10 – NYG 13
  • Q3 14:05 TD CIN (14:05) 32-J.Hill left tackle for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 16 – NYG 14
  • Q3 08:56 FG CIN (8:56) 2-M.Nugent 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 20 – NYG 14
  • Q4 14:12 TD NYG (14:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short left to 87-S.Shepard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 20 – NYG 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 7 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (7:44) 9-B.Wing punts 50 yards to CIN 25, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-17-D.Harris.

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 1 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.51 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (4:35) 10-K.Huber punts 42 yards to NYG 14, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 17-D.Harris.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 15 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (1:22) 9-B.Wing punts 55 yards to CIN 15, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 12-A.Erickson pushed ob at CIN 24 for 9 yards (51-Z.DeOssie).

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 9 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (13:40) 10-K.Huber punts 51 yards to NYG 12, Center-46-C.Harris. 17-D.Harris ran ob at NYG 20 for 8 yards (89-R.Hewitt).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 2 at the 37
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 61%

    (9:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning sacked at CIN 48 for -11 yards (97-G.Atkins).

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 4 at the 46
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 38%

    (7:56) 10-K.Huber punts 45 yards to NYG 1, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-21-D.Dennard.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 97%

    (4:30) 2-M.Nugent 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (12:37) 9-B.Wing punts 48 yards to CIN 21, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 39 for 18 yards (43-B.Rainey, 93-B.Goodson).

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 5 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 90%

    (8:56) 2-M.Nugent 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 4 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (8:02) 9-B.Wing punts 51 yards to CIN 25, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 33 for 8 yards (29-N.Berhe, 94-M.Herzlich).

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 11 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (5:53) 10-K.Huber punts 53 yards to NYG 15, Center-46-C.Harris. 43-B.Rainey to NYG 30 for 15 yards (33-R.Burkhead, 57-V.Rey).

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 4 at the 45
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 40%

    (3:40) 9-B.Wing punts 35 yards to CIN 10, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson. PENALTY on CIN-21-D.Dennard, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 5 yards, enforced at CIN 10.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 9 at the 94
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (2:08) 10-K.Huber punts 50 yards to NYG 44, Center-46-C.Harris. 43-B.Rainey pushed ob at CIN 47 for 9 yards (57-V.Rey).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 98%

    (14:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short left to 87-S.Shepard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 1 at the 79
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.18 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (9:09) 10-K.Huber punts 52 yards to NYG 27, Center-46-C.Harris. 43-B.Rainey to NYG 35 for 8 yards (81-T.Kroft).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 3 at the 46
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 38%

    (6:23) 9-B.Wing punts 37 yards to CIN 9, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.