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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 37

New York Giants 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(9:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning sacked at CIN 48 for -11 yards (97-G.Atkins).

The Three Options

GO +1.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +4.00 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 37, worth -1.55 EP
KICK +0.43 EP
  • 61% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 46, worth -2.42 EP
PUNT +0.29 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model