4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 4 at the 46

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(7:56) 10-K.Huber punts 45 yards to NYG 1, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-21-D.Dennard.

The Three Options

GO -0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.82 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 46, worth -3.06 EP
KICK -1.49 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.24 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -3.16 EP
PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 13, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP