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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 4 at the 69

New York Giants 14 – Cincinnati Bengals 17

What Actually Happened

(12:37) 9-B.Wing punts 48 yards to CIN 21, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 39 for 18 yards (43-B.Rainey, 93-B.Goodson).

The Three Options

GO -1.04 EP
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.92 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 69, worth -3.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 27, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model